The count down has started for the 17th Lok sabha elections and in a couple of days we would need to firm up our choice of candidate to be able to cast our vote . The question is would we be really looking at the candidate ? or the candidates party ? May be neither ..for we may not have much to relate to either . The pre election narrative has been such that the voter has been left with a choice between PM Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi of the congress or any of the regional satraps now in the fray and loosely banded as the mahagatbandhan . So it is a virtual Presidential election where in we are as good as directly electing our Prime Minister -at least as far as the BJP is concerned . Thus if we are rooting for Modi all we would look for is if the candidate belongs to BJP or is an ally of the BJP and if we are anti Modi then all we would look for is if the candidate belongs to Congress or is part of the mahagatbandhan . In this scenario even if one was not a Modi bhakt – Modi could still be a wise mans choice being the known devil as against an unknown devil .
Would incumbency matter – As per Prannoy Roy in his latest book – The Verdict – Decoding India’s elections , the era from 2002 up to 2018 has been classified as the era of the wise voter when incumbency and anti incumbency have both had a 50% success ratio .The voter has rewarded the government which has delivered with a second term or even the third term and has punished the government which did not perform . For the BJP to gain the incumbency vote the question shall be – has Modi done enough in his first term :

Where Modi gains :

* There has been no big Corruption scandal unlike the previous UPA rule which was voted out for the numerous scandals which kept tumbling out
For all the chowkidar rhetoric Rafael has not stuck .
 * Inflation has been Low and that has helped keep food prices under control which matters to the aam admi and does influence election outcomes .
 * Infra development has been note worthy – highways and road works have been completed at record speeds & metro works are in full swing across various cities . Electrification and low cost housing have also been given a boost
 * Astute Fiscal Management – Fiscal discipline has been followed by the mandarins at Raisina Hills with freebees been kept largely under control.
 * Swatch Bharat has been a worthy initiative for our filthy cities and has indeed made a difference to the common man . For sure a serious attempt has been made to eradicate open defecation .
 * GST roll out was a mega tax reform and although hastily implemented has been rationalised and corrected over the past two years .
 * Security Policy – Pakistan’s nuclear bluff has been called off ; this has given a BIG fillip to India’s international stature .At long last we are not seen as a nation twiddling our thumbs and wondering what diplomatic steps to take in the wake of repeated terrorist attacks sponsored by our neighbour .

Where Modi loses :

 * Demonetisation was too ambitious and caused much hardship to the daily wage earner and the self employed ; However the intent had been right and in any case did not end up serving any vested interest of the ruling party .
 * Jobs are simply missing ; a burgeoning young population needs work and wages which are not forth coming ; Make in India is still an idea in the making .
 * Farm Distress – Farm reforms have not happened ; the farmer has been unable to get the right price for his produce causing much hardship to the rural poor .
 * Anti Minority rhetoric and ascendancy of pro hindutvata voices – Cow vigilantism , beef ban and love jihad have been given a bull ride the excesses of which have been quietly acquiesced by the top BJP leadership This has sowed the seeds of divisiveness and distrust – exploited by the so called fringe elements .
 * Zero tolerance or intolerance – the other view and contrary opinion is being more often then not been shouted down as anti national which does not augur well for our democracy .
 * Institutional independence – is being compromised with pro government lackeys been appointed to head such bodies . RBI being a case in point .
 * Kashmir policy – has been a failure with dissent and strife having only increased amidst the Kashmiri’s and a solution to the vexed problem being no where in sight .

In my opinion the Modi gain factors out-weigh the Modi lose factors and that would help cast the vote in favour of incumbency . The Wise voter would want to give Modi a second chance and more so in the absence of any credible opposition .
Will Modi win by a landslide ? Would 2014 be repeated ? That seems unlikely . Modi would yet again form the government and get his second five year term albeit with a reduced majority . The opposition is likely to gain in pockets and more so in the south. Which in a way would be good for Indian democracy to have a strengthened opposition that keeps a check on hindutvata excesses , institutional marauding and minority bashing . What we would look forward to in Modi’s second innings is a more tolerant Modi who is a reformer and not just a performer . What we would not look forward to is Modi as the majoritarian leader of a Hindu nation .